Optimal data-based binning for histograms and histogram-based probability density models

Histograms are convenient non-parametric density estimators, which continue to be used ubiquitously. Summary quantities estimated from histogram-based probability density models depend on the choice of the number of bins. We introduce a straightforward data-based method of determining the optimal number of bins in a uniform bin-width histogram. By assigning a multinomial likelihood and a non-informative prior, we derive the posterior probability for the number of bins in a piecewise-constant density model given the data. In addition, we estimate the mean and standard deviations of the resulting bin heights, examine the effects of small sample sizes and digitized data, and demonstrate the application to multi-dimensional histograms.     

一种有效折扣证据源的冲突证据合成方法

为解决证据组合规则中一票否决和弱决策证据在低冲突情况下出现的反直观推理的现象，提出一种有效折扣证据源的冲突证据合成方法。首先根据证据的信任函数和似然函数求得证据间的相似度，然后求出证据之间的支持程度，并确定折扣因子，最后采用Dempster组合规则合成利用折扣因子修正后的证据源。数值算例分析结果表明，改进后的证据组合方法可以有效地处理证据冲突。     

Predicting employee information security policy compliance on a daily basis: The interplay of security-related stress,emotions, and neutralization

We conceptualized security-related stress (SRS) and proposed a theoretical model linking SRS, discrete emotions, coping response, and information security policy (ISP) compliance. We used an experience sampling design, wherein 138 professionals completed surveys. We observed that SRS had a positive association with frustration and fatigue, and these negative emotions were associated with neutralization of ISP violations. Additionally, frustration and fatigue make employees more likely to follow through on their rationalizations of ISP violations by decreased ISP compliance. Our findings provide evidence that neutralization is not a completely stable phenomenon but can vary within individuals from one time point to another.     

吐哈盆地葡北地区“两宽一高”地震勘探技术及应用效果

吐哈盆地台北凹陷圈闭落实的准确度和储层分布预测的精度一直是制约该区油气发现的关键因素。通过可控震源“两宽一高”地震采集、OVT域时间偏移、地质导向深度偏移初始模型建立及各向异性深度偏移迭代处理，在地震资料的信噪比、频带宽度和分辨率等方面明显提高的基础上，以高精度层序地层学为指导，基于高分辨率地震资料与钻井、测井资料的综合分析，识别出侏罗系6个三级层序，在三级层序格架内将研究区七克台组底部和三间房组顶部砂体识别为两个连续上升半旋回四级层序；通过构造几何属性分析及精细构造分析，揭示了本区“四带、两凹”的构造格局及形成机制；以宽频带多种反演技术为手段，对含油气层段的七克台组和三间房组砂体分布进行了预测；在综合构造分析、储层分析和油藏成藏规律分析的基础上，提出本区油气沿构造带脊线聚集，断裂系统是油气运移的优势路径，七克台组、三间房组储层在葡北构造带发育，向玉果构造带和胜北次凹减薄尖灭，葡北构造带与玉果构造带结合部位的，具有鼻状构造背景的岩性圈闭是获得油气突破的有利地区。     

Theoretical kinetic study of the reaction between dimethyl disulfide and OH radicals

The potential energy profile of the reaction between dimethyl disulfide and OH^? radicals is explored by utilizing ab initio and hybrid meta density functional theory methods. Having the energies and structural data of the stationary points, statistical rate theories, such as transition state theory and variable reaction coordinate-transition state theory, are employed to compute the overall rate constants, and discuss the mechanism and product channels. On the basis of the calculations, the overall rate coefficient is predicted to be 2.49?×?10^?10?cm³?molecule^?1?s^?1 at 298?K. It is found that in the most favorable pathway, the reaction proceeds via formation of the relatively unstable intermediate CH₃S^?(OH)SCH₃ decomposing rapidly to yield CH₃S^?+CH₃SOH.     

Refurbishment or quality recovery: joint quality and pricing decisions for new product development

Refurbishment and quality recovery, as two important strategies of reverse logistics, have been widely used for consumer durables, especially consumer electronics. This trend is driven by manufacturers’ profit-seeking behaviours and the increasing environmental concerns of society. This study investigates and compares the optimal emergence of these two strategies when product quality is endogenous. Model analyses provide several notable insights. First, we find that the refurbishment strategy dominates the quality recovery strategy when the fraction of the recoverable quality-inducing components in the defective product is low enough. Moreover, when the refurbishment strategy emerges as the optimum, the quality and price of the new product as well as the total realised sales of both new and refurbished products are consistently higher than those with the quality recovery strategy. In addition, when either the refurbishment or quality recovery strategy emerges as the optimum, the overall consumer surplus is also enhanced. Finally, in the model generalisation, we show that a synthetic strategy with which some of the returned defective products are refurbished and others are remanufactured through quality recovery can certainly increase the manufacturers’ profit compared to either one of them when the fraction of the recoverable quality-inducing components in the defective product is moderate.     

Study of the influence of notch radii and temperature on the probability of failure: A methodology to perform a combined assessment

The fracture assessment of notched components based on cracked components approaches leads to over‐conservative failure predictions. In the research literature, several approaches are proposed to overcome this problem using an apparent fracture toughness, . Nevertheless, most of these approaches are based on deterministic assumptions despite the large and variable scatter exhibited by for different notch radii (ρ) or temperatures (T). This paper proposes a methodology for deriving a probabilistic field including the effect of temperature on the failure of notched components. First, the theory of critical distances is applied to transform each apparent fracture toughness into the equivalent fracture toughness for ρ = 0. Then, the temperature is supposed to act as a scale effect in the Weibull cumulative distribution function of the equivalent fracture toughness, and the corresponding scale effect function is derived. Finally, the applicability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by an example using two ferritic‐pearlitic steels: S275JR and S355J2.     

The three Rs of river ecosystem resilience: Resources,recruitment, and refugia

Resilience in river ecosystems requires that organisms must persist in the face of highly dynamic hydrological and geomorphological variations. Disturbance events such as floods and droughts are postulated to shape life history traits that support resilience, but river management and conservation would benefit from greater understanding of the emergent effects in communities of river organisms. We unify current knowledge of taxonomic‐, phylogenetic‐, and trait‐based aspects of river communities that might aid the identification and quantification of resilience mechanisms. Temporal variations in river productivity, physical connectivity, and environmental heterogeneity resulting from floods and droughts are highlighted as key characteristics that promote resilience in these dynamic ecosystems. Three community‐wide mechanisms that underlie resilience are (a) partitioning (competition/facilitation) of dynamically varying resources, (b) dispersal, recolonization, and recruitment promoted by connectivity, and (c) functional redundancy in communities promoted by resource heterogeneity and refugia. Along with taxonomic and phylogenetic identity, biological traits related to feeding specialization, dispersal ability, and habitat specialization mediate organism responses to disturbance. Measures of these factors might also enable assessment of the relative contributions of different mechanisms to community resilience. Interactions between abiotic drivers and biotic aspects of resource use, dispersal, and persistence have clear implications for river conservation and management. To support these management needs, we propose a set of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and life‐history trait metrics that might be used to measure resilience mechanisms. By identifying such indicators, our proposed framework can enable targeted management strategies to adapt river ecosystems to global change.